Seasonal atmospheric and oceanographic factors influencing poleward mangrove expansion in the southeastern American coast

Mangrove ecosystems are distributed worldwide, along tropical and subtropical coastlines. For a long time, mangrove biogeographers have been challenged by the question: why is distribution restricted to its current latitudinal limits? The Araranguá estuary in Brazil located ?75 km beyond eastern South America limit. Despite geomorphology apparently being suitable for colonization, mangroves reported absent from this estuary. In work, we analyze key environmental variables (such as longest available observational in-situ records of air temperature) provide an assessment other players adjacent ocean circulation upwelling system) better understand which factors could be determinant species range limits America. Our results suggest that, depending on season, multiple combine prevent poleward dispersion species. These mainly northward-directed longshore drift dominates throughout year high occurrence chilling events during winter, although seasonal cold waters spring summer also influence propagules’ viability.